critical assumption: May 2011

5/27/2011

Random Thoughts | Commodities Profiteers

Posted by amckinnis | tags..... business, Life

There's probably another post in here about it, but I'm going to say it again - we need to totally revamp the commodities market for oil, including gasoline, diesel and heating oil.

It should be about a market for buyers and sellers - not middle men and brokers. I know, there's a thousand reasons why it's a good thing - but I have one reason why it's bad....it adds cost to the product - pure and simple. Some will say it balances out during the long term - but remember that Milton Friedman [one of the fathers of modern economics] said that the problem with long term planning is that most of us are dead in the long term [I paraphrase].

But I don't believe it does zero out in the long term. I believe one of the reasons we fell into the great depression of 2009 was the rising gas prices. I caused a slow down of spending in other areas - and that combined with some interesting financial system trickery - the world economy blew up. We are on the same path now - and I believe it's because we have people trying to hedge large currency plays - they don't care if it's factional gains or losses - it's about keeping their "money in motion".

Buying and selling contracts on the commodities market is just good business when you need to to move huge sums of money. Unless you are actually a "buyer" of the raw material [crude or gasoline]. Your goal it to match and balance three things - your raw materials, your production and your inventory. Buy too much and you loose money - but too little and you miss out on revenue and profits. Those are real business concerns. And they have a huge impact on the lives of millions of people in the country.

Our law makers need to actually do something - quit having meeting, quit taking money from the power brokers, and actually think through what is in the best interest of this country, rather than their own best interest - or their next re-election campaign.

I may not be simple - but it can be done.

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5/26/2011

Dissenting Opinion | Why Cloud Computing is a Distraction

Posted by amckinnis |

First of all, I'm a 20 or 30 something - so there are going to be lots of things that I don't get. Like why putting all your personal information on Facebook and Twitter is such a good thing. That having 5M "friends" on Twitter is impressive. Or why Angry Birds is so popular.

So, when I say that Cloud Computer [and all it's variations and as a Service terms] is just a distraction for CIOs - there's probably something I'm not getting. But here's my reasoning...

The paradigm shift is about services - not technology. Cloud Computing is obscuring that fact. CIOs need to be thinking about how to "manage and integrate" services - and stop thinking about how to manage and integrate technology. Because the darlings of the "cloud" world are mostly technology plays [like compute and storage].
Cloud is about a shift in risk because the "cost of IT" is basically a zero sum game. Regardless of who pays for what - the full market for IT balances to Zero. Who bears the risk of the consumption model? Is it the service provider or the customer? For cloud - it's the service providers and they are usually hedging their bets and are over subscribed - just like that airline flight overbooking seats for the most popular routes. There have been recent headlines about "cloud" providers going down or losing service. That's going to happen - with the cost model only works for the service provider if they over subscribe for capacity. If they bet wrong - then systems go down.
CIOs have to figure out how to "get their own house in order" before being forced by business units to provide a certain service from a certain vendor. Sure it sounds like a really good idea for the EVP of Sales to go out and buy Salesforce.com for the 200 person sales department - but who actually has to support those 200 "users"? Not the EVP of Sales - it's the CIO. But that's just one example of hundreds - how about the Shipping department or Account department or Marketing department - there are "cloud" services for all of them. The functional business units need to work with the CIO - because if they don't - then the chaos just gets worse.
Finally - CIOs have to figure out how to "market" themselves better. Go out and find a professional Product Marketing person to help "package" services. The reason the EVP of Sales purchased Salesforce.com without your input - was because you've been distracted about keeping the lights on. Caught up in your world of operations and technology. Start to package your services, create user directed "messages" to users, directly sell to them - quit being passive - your career depends it.
Well - I don't think Cloud Computing is the answer or the problem. It's just another way for technology people to not have to really deal with their lack of understanding. Users want their lives to be easier - they don't care how it's "delivered" or where information is stored. Most don't understand the what a ritualized server and storage infrastructure looks like - nor do they care.

So CIOs - quit with the technology and start with the services. Sit down and listen, figure out what your users really want - then figure out how to "integrate" all these new and cool technologies and services to make it happen.

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5/26/2011

What is passion?

Posted by amckinnis | tags..... ideas, Life

We've all heard the saying "Do what you love and the money will follow." I kinda believe that statement - but it's not a hard and fast rule in life. There are plenty of people that are doing what they love - and have no real money to show for it. Probably a better statement would be "Do what you love and happiness will follow [and sometimes money tag along."

So how do you determine "what you love"? Well, one of the best ways to figure that out is to look at those ideas that just won't leave you alone. Maybe you've had these ideas for years and you have not really done anything with them. These hopes, dreams, thoughts, goals, and possibilities consume you - when your mind and life are quiet, you think about them. When asked "if you had a $1M, what would you do...?" - this is the thing that pops into your mind.

Now, it's easy for someone writing a blog post, or a book, or speaking at a conference to tell you "Just follow these passions. Don't listen to the skeptics and naysayers. They are just trying to keep you in the herd, they don't want to you have courage, because they don't." That's easy. Hearing and doing are two different things. Getting all jazzed about "following your heart" is great until the rent comes due or your kids want to enjoy another activity. It's a hard place to be - wanting to follow a dream, and dealing with the realities of life. [like the fact that Walmart does not a heightened sense of passion at the cash register]

I don't really have any answers. I believe most people just allow their lives to unfold in front of them most of the time. The few times in life they took the reigns - they had a sense of what it is to be fully alive - but that feeling is not for everyone. Everything has it's time and place. But that does not mean we should give up dreaming - give up on having some lust for life.

Keep going and keep dreaming.

Passions are those ideas that don't leave you alone. They are the hopes, dreams and possibilities that consume your thoughts. Follow those passions despite skeptics and naysayers, who do not have the courage to follow their dreams.

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5/13/2011

I still don't quite get it....

Posted by amckinnis | tags..... business, technology

The whole thing about "cloud" computing. I mean I understand how delivery is different - take music as an example. When I was in high school - it was about having a kick-ass stereo in your room with speakers that made the walls shake. Now music is bit more personal and instead of stacks of records, there's a thing that fits in your pocket with ear phones.

So is music different or just the delivery and store? Radio is another adjunct to that music "ecosystem" - I'm listening to Pandora right now, and they are serving me music (like radio did when I was in high school) - but it's different. But I still like radio - with technology, I can listen to my favorite radio station in the world - KBCO in Boulder. I couldn't do that a few years ago.

So it Cloud the new thing - or just another step along the path? It is a technology thing or a tech delivery thing? Like I said - I don't necessarily get it, mostly because I saw this coming a few years ago, when Amazon decided to start selling their extra capacity so they could pay their bills a bit easier between holiday selling seasons.

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5/13/2011

Manifestos for Life | ChangeThis: Issue 82

Posted by amckinnis |

ChangeThis: Issue 82

Little Bets: Think Differently by Peter Sims

"Our education system places great emphasis on teaching us about facts that are already known, such as historical information or scientific tables, and then testing us in order to measure how much we've retained about that body of knowledge. Those skills work perfectly well for many situations, but not when doing something new. Or creative. Or original. They certainly won't help us invent the future.

As education and creativity researcher and author Sir Ken Robinson puts it, 'We are educating people out of their creativity.' But it's still there. And unleashing our creativity, however deeply it's hidden, begins with little bets."

Don't Let the Sidewalk End: How To Create a Revolution by Patrick J. Howie

"This manifesto is about creating revolutions. Not big political revolutions, although it could help there too, but revolutions of any size and in any field or industry. It is also about innovating, and how to be better at it and how innovations, properly nourished, are the catalysts of revolutions."

To start with, we should all recognize that innovation is a process, not an event. When the process results in dramatic change, it is called a revolution."

Happiness Advocacy, Or, How Positive Psychology Will Save Us From Zombies by Annie Passanisi

"Happiness. That feeling you get from StuffOnMyCat.com or Skyping with a far away friend. Side effects include: joy, contentment, glee, elation, and surges of confidence, hope, and gratitude. That happiness. If you're ready to throw in the towel (or this in the garbage), kindly allow me to clarify something. This ain't yo' momma's (or for that matter my momma's*) self-help book so don't get all judgmental. If MacGyver can stop a bomb with a toothpick, we can save the world with happiness. 'Fiction!' you say? It's even been scientifically proven. You see, it's all in the technique, my friends."

The Four Strands: Creating Companies Aligned With Human DNA by Henry Cloud, Ph.D

"There are universal developmental issues and milestones in the construction of all people, which like gravity, must be obeyed. They are like the laws of physics, non-negotiable. Break these laws and dysfunction occurs. But, obey these laws and people thrive. They will be what we call "healthy."

So, when a company is designed and operates in ways that are aligned with how people are constructed, it will be like an airplane aligned with the laws of physics that govern force or torque."

How to Sharpen Your Sales Strengths by Tony Rutigliano & Brian Brim

"There is no single right way to sell. In fact, we believe there are as many ways to sell as there are salespeople.

Does that feel liberating? We hope so. If you enjoy sales, if you're good at it, and if you're finding some of the success you want, you possess a rare ability—and you should celebrate it. You're someone who can do this job. And if you're trying to follow a method or emulating a sales hero and it's not working, it might not be your fault. Who you are is who you should be. You'll be most successful at sales if you make the most of who you are."

Make It Happen: Turning Good Ideas Into Great Results by Peter Sheahan

"The world is not short of ideas. It's not. It is short of people who can execute on them. It is short of people who know how to take their aspirations and make a real impact on the world with them.

What differentiates the great ideas that end up on the cutting room floor from those that wind up changing the world? There are five steps, or rather five competencies you can build that separate the haves from the have-nots, the doers from the talkers … They are not a mantra for meditation, they are not positive affirmations that you chant to yourself in the mirror, they are actions."